HOMEMODULESMODULE_03

Electoral College

The 538 Gatekeepers

4 hours4 topicsPrimary sources included
3.1

The 1787 Compromise

The Electoral College was not designed as a democratic institution. It was a compromise between those who wanted Congress to choose the president and those who wanted direct popular election. It also protected the political power of slave states.

original_design.pseudo
pseudo
// Constitutional Convention debates
PROPOSALS_REJECTED:
    - Congressional_selection    // Too much legislative power
    - Direct_popular_vote       // "Mob rule" fears + slave state disadvantage
    - State_legislature_choice  // Federalism concerns

COMPROMISE_ADOPTED:
    Electoral_College:
        electors_per_state = senators(2) + representatives(variable)
        // Slave states get extra power via 3/5 clause
        
// The slave state advantage
STATE virginia:
    free_population = 454,983
    enslaved_population = 292,627
    
    IF direct_popular_vote:
        voting_power = free_population
    
    IF electoral_college:
        voting_power = free_population + (enslaved_population * 0.6)
        // 175,576 additional "representation" from people who cannot vote
THE 3/5 CLAUSE LEGACY
The 3/5 Compromise gave Southern states approximately 25% more electoral votes than their free population warranted. This shaped every presidential election until 1865. Of the first 16 presidential elections, Southern slave-holders won 12.
3.2

Winner-Take-All: The Unwritten Rule

The Constitution doesn't require winner-take-all allocation of electoral votes. States adopted it to maximize their influence, creating a race to the bottom that concentrates presidential campaigns in a handful of "swing states."

1789

First Election

States use various methods: legislative appointment, district voting, mixed systems.

1800-1832

Winner-Take-All Spreads

States adopt WTA to maximize influence. By 1836, all but SC use popular vote with WTA.

2000

Bush v. Gore

537 Florida votes determine presidency. Winner-take-all makes small margins decisive.

2016

Clinton Wins Popular Vote

2.9 million vote margin insufficient. Electoral College produces opposite winner.

winner_take_all_effect.pseudo
pseudo
// Winner-take-all distortion example: 2020
FUNCTION analyze_vote_efficiency():
    
    california:
        biden_votes = 11,110,639
        trump_votes = 6,006,518
        margin = 5,104,121
        electoral_votes_won = 55
        
        // Biden's "excess" votes beyond winning:
        wasted_votes = margin - 1  // Over 5 million
        
    wyoming:
        trump_votes = 193,559
        biden_votes = 73,491
        margin = 120,068
        electoral_votes_won = 3
        
    // Vote weight comparison
    wyoming_voters_per_ev = 266,000 / 3 = 88,667
    california_voters_per_ev = 39,500,000 / 55 = 718,182
    
    // A Wyoming vote is worth 8x a California vote
8x
Vote weight disparity
Wyoming vs. California
5
Elections since 2000
Popular vote loser won twice
12
Swing states
Receive 96% of campaign events
3.3

The Small State Advantage

Every state gets two electoral votes for its senators regardless of population. This "Senate bonus" gives small states disproportionate influence, systematically advantaging rural, whiter states over urban, diverse ones.

senate_bonus.pseudo
pseudo
// Electoral vote allocation
FUNCTION calculate_electoral_votes(state):
    house_seats = apportion_by_population(state.population)
    senate_seats = 2  // Fixed regardless of population
    
    total_ev = house_seats + senate_seats
    RETURN total_ev

// The distortion
FUNCTION calculate_representation_ratio():
    
    STATE wyoming:
        population = 576,851
        electoral_votes = 3
        people_per_ev = 192,284
        
    STATE california:
        population = 39,538,223
        electoral_votes = 55  // Should be 68 without senate bonus
        people_per_ev = 718,876
    
    // Wyoming representation advantage
    advantage_ratio = 718876 / 192284 = 3.74x

// Impact: Small states collectively have ~22 "extra" electoral votes
// This is often the margin of victory
THE MATH OF MINORITY RULE
It's mathematically possible to win the presidency with just 22% of the popular vote by winning the smallest states. While extreme, elections have been won with less than 50% of the popular vote five times, including twice since 2000.
3.4

Faithless Electors

Electors are actual people who cast the official votes. Historically, some have voted contrary to their state's popular vote. In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled states can bind electors—but enforcement varies.

165
Faithless votes
In U.S. history
10
Faithless electors
2016 election alone
faithless_electors.pseudo
pseudo
// Chiafalo v. Washington (2020)
RULING:
    States MAY bind electors to state popular vote
    States MAY penalize faithless electors
    States MAY remove and replace faithless electors

// Current state of play
FUNCTION elector_binding_status():
    states_with_binding_laws = 33
    states_that_penalize = 15
    states_that_replace = 14
    states_with_no_restrictions = 17
    
    // Potential chaos scenario
    IF election_margin < faithless_elector_count:
        outcome = CONTESTED
        resolution = UNKNOWN
3.5

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

Since constitutional amendment is nearly impossible, reformers have pursued the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact—an agreement among states to award their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner.

npvic.pseudo
pseudo
// National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
COMPACT npvic:
    trigger_condition = member_states_ev >= 270
    
    IF triggered:
        FOR state IN member_states:
            electoral_votes -> national_popular_vote_winner
        
        // Effect: Electoral College exists but is neutralized
        // Popular vote winner guaranteed to win

// Current status (2024)
member_states = [
    CA(54), CO(10), CT(7), DC(3), DE(3), HI(4),
    IL(19), MA(11), MD(10), ME(4), MN(10), NJ(14),
    NM(5), NY(28), OR(8), RI(4), VT(3), WA(12)
]
current_ev_total = 209
needed_to_trigger = 270 - 209 = 61

// Challenges
legal_questions = [
    "Does Compact Clause require Congressional consent?",
    "Can states bind future legislatures?",
    "Would courts enforce if result is contested?"
]
209
Electoral votes
Currently committed to NPVIC
61
More EV needed
To trigger the compact
17
States + DC
Have joined the compact
THE END-RUN STRATEGY
The NPVIC doesn't abolish the Electoral College—it uses it. By coordinating state electoral vote allocation, it would guarantee the popular vote winner becomes president without amending the Constitution.

MODULE_03 // KEY_TAKEAWAYS

  • The Electoral College was designed to protect slave state power and filter popular opinion through elites.
  • Winner-take-all rules are not constitutional requirements—states adopted them strategically.
  • Small state advantage means votes in Wyoming count ~4x more than votes in California.
  • The National Popular Vote Compact offers a path to reform without constitutional amendment.
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