HOMEMODULESMODULE_08

Primary Systems

The Pre-Election Filter

4 hours4 topicsPrimary sources included
8.1

The Pre-Election Filter

How parties select candidates before voters ever see a ballot

Before you vote in a general election, candidates have already survived a gauntlet of primaries, caucuses, and party rules. This pre-filter system determines your actual choices - and it was never mentioned in the Constitution.

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CLASS PrimaryElection:
  // Primaries are run by state governments
  // But rules are set by parties (private organizations)
  
  types = {
    CLOSED: "Only registered party members vote",
    OPEN: "Any voter can participate",
    SEMI_CLOSED: "Party members + independents",
    BLANKET: "All candidates, top-two advance (CA, WA)"
  }
  
  FUNCTION determine_voter_eligibility(voter, primary_type):
    SWITCH primary_type:
      CASE CLOSED:
        // Must register with party weeks/months ahead
        IF voter.party != this.party:
          RETURN INELIGIBLE
          
      CASE OPEN:
        // Anyone can vote, but only in one party's primary
        RETURN ELIGIBLE
        
      CASE SEMI_CLOSED:
        IF voter.party == INDEPENDENT:
          RETURN ELIGIBLE
        ELSE IF voter.party == this.party:
          RETURN ELIGIBLE
        ELSE:
          RETURN INELIGIBLE

// Key issue: Only 27% of eligible voters participate
// These 27% choose options for 100% of voters
27%
Average primary turnout
9
States with closed primaries
15
States with open primaries
8.2

Caucuses: The Participation Filter

Multi-hour meetings that dramatically limit who chooses candidates

Caucuses require voters to spend hours at a specific location on a specific evening. This dramatically reduces participation compared to primaries, giving outsized influence to those with flexible schedules and strong opinions.

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CLASS Caucus:
  // Iowa model (Democratic version until 2024)
  
  requirements = {
    time_commitment: "2-3 hours minimum",
    schedule: "Single evening, typically 7pm",
    location: "Must attend precinct location in person",
    participation: "Public declaration of preference"
  }
  
  FUNCTION run_caucus(precinct):
    // Step 1: Attendees physically group by candidate
    groups = separate_by_candidate(attendees)
    
    // Step 2: Viability threshold (usually 15%)
    FOR each group IN groups:
      IF group.size < (total_attendees * 0.15):
        // Non-viable - must realign
        group.status = "ELIMINATED"
        redistribute_supporters(group)
    
    // Step 3: Final count after realignment
    // Awarded as "state delegate equivalents"
    
  // Who can realistically participate?
  excluded_populations = [
    "Workers with evening shifts",
    "Parents without childcare",
    "People with disabilities",
    "Those without transportation",
    "Anyone uncomfortable with public declaration"
  ]
  
  // Iowa 2020: 176,000 caucused out of 2.2M registered
  // That's 8% choosing delegates for 100%
The Death of the Iowa Caucus
After the 2020 caucus debacle (delayed results, app failures), both parties have moved away from Iowa's first-in-nation status. Democrats switched to a mail primary in 2024, while the caucus system is being replaced by primaries nationwide.
8.3

Delegate Math and Front-Loading

How the calendar and allocation rules shape outcomes

Presidential nominations aren't won by popular vote but by accumulating delegates. Each party has different rules for how delegates are allocated, and states compete to vote early for maximum influence.

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CLASS DemocraticDelegates:
  // Proportional allocation with 15% threshold
  
  FUNCTION allocate(state_results):
    viable_candidates = filter(
      results, 
      candidate => candidate.vote_share >= 0.15
    )
    
    // Delegates split proportionally among viable candidates
    FOR each candidate IN viable_candidates:
      candidate.delegates = round(
        state.total_delegates * 
        (candidate.votes / viable_total_votes)
      )
    
    // Candidates under 15% get ZERO delegates
    // Even with 14.9% of the vote

CLASS RepublicanDelegates:
  // Rules vary wildly by state
  
  allocation_types = {
    "Winner Take All": "Plurality wins all delegates",
    "Winner Take Most": "Statewide + congressional districts",
    "Proportional": "Split by vote share (with threshold)"
  }
  
  // Early states required to be proportional
  // Later states can be winner-take-all
  // This rewards candidates who survive early

CALENDAR_EFFECT:
  super_tuesday_delegates = ~35% of total
  // Candidates without early momentum drop out
  // Many voters never get meaningful choice
1968

Chicago Convention Chaos

Party bosses choose Humphrey despite not running in primaries; leads to reform

1972

McGovern-Fraser Reforms

Democrats require primaries/caucuses; binding delegate selection begins

1988

Super Tuesday Created

Southern states coordinate to increase regional influence

2008

Front-Loading Peak

24 states vote by February 5; campaign essentially decided in weeks

8.4

Superdelegates and Party Influence

How party officials maintain control despite democratic primaries

Superdelegates are party officials who get convention votes without being elected by primary voters. After 2016 controversy, Democrats reformed but didn't eliminate this system.

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CLASS Superdelegates:
  // Democratic party only (Republicans don't have this)
  
  PRE_2020_RULES:
    total_superdelegates = ~715
    percentage_of_total = ~15%
    voting_round = "FIRST"  // Can tip contested race
    
    // 2016: Clinton had 500+ superdelegates before 
    // a single vote was cast
    
  POST_2020_RULES:
    total_superdelegates = ~750  // Still exist
    voting_round = "SECOND"  // Only if contested
    
    // First ballot: Only pledged delegates vote
    // Second ballot (if no majority): 
    //   Superdelegates can vote, pledged delegates unbound
    
  WHO_ARE_SUPERDELEGATES = [
    "All DNC members (~450)",
    "All Democratic governors (~25)",
    "All Democratic senators (~45-50)",
    "All Democratic House members (~210-220)",
    "Distinguished party leaders (former presidents, etc.)"
  ]
  
  FUNCTION assess_influence():
    // Even without first-ballot votes, superdelegates:
    // - Control party infrastructure
    // - Provide endorsements and fundraising
    // - Set convention rules
    // - Dominate media narrative
    
    RETURN "Reduced but not eliminated influence"
The Invisible Primary
Before any votes are cast, candidates compete in the "invisible primary": securing endorsements, raising money, and building staff. By the time voters participate, the field has often been narrowed by elite decisions about who is "viable."
8.5

Primary Problems and Alternatives

Why the current system produces candidates many voters don't want

Low turnout, front-loading, and closed systems mean a small fraction of ideologically motivated voters choose candidates for the entire electorate. Several states are experimenting with alternatives.

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// PROBLEM: Current system's structural issues
current_issues = {
  low_participation: "27% turnout in primaries",
  ideological_extremes: "Primary voters more partisan than general",
  calendar_distortion: "Early states have outsized influence",
  party_control: "Rules set by private organizations",
  spoiler_effects: "Similar candidates split votes"
}

// ALTERNATIVE 1: Ranked Choice Primaries
CLASS RankedChoicePrimary:
  FUNCTION count_votes(ballots):
    WHILE no_candidate_has_majority:
      last_place = find_lowest_candidate()
      redistribute_to_second_choices(last_place)
    RETURN winner
  // Used in: Alaska, Maine

// ALTERNATIVE 2: Top-Two/Top-Four Primary  
CLASS JunglePrimary:
  // All candidates on single ballot
  // Top finishers advance regardless of party
  
  FUNCTION run(all_candidates):
    results = single_ballot_election(all_candidates)
    RETURN top_n(results, advance_count)  // Top 2 or 4
  // Used in: California, Washington, Louisiana

// ALTERNATIVE 3: Open Primaries + RCV
CLASS AlaskaModel:
  // Combined: all candidates, all voters, top 4 advance
  // General: Ranked choice among top 4
  
  // 2022 result: Moderate Democrat won in Republican state
  // Because she was acceptable second choice
14%
Of Americans who chose 2024 nominees
5
States experimenting with RCV or top-two

System Dependencies

Primary systems interact heavily with gerrymandering: in "safe" districts drawn for one party, the primary IS the election. This pushes candidates toward extremes since they only need to win over partisan primary voters, not the general electorate.

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